Georgian U-21 team beat Turkey in the qualifying round of Euro-2011 and actually guaranteed the second place in the 2nd group. Even draw with Armenia is enough for this. This match will be held in Tbilisi on September 7. "World Sport" has already written about chances going through the final of Euro-2011: there are only 10 groups. First and 4 second place winners (14 teams) will go through playoff. Then 7 pairs will be formed and "excellent 7" will be found out among them. They will go through the final stage and will join host Denmark there.
The main question is whether Georgia will be among the best 2nd place winners from 10 groups. There is a small probability of this, but still there is a chance. The best teams among second place winners will be found out this way - points gained in the group are counted. If teams have the same points, then balls are determinant. 2 from 10 groups includes 6 teams and points gained with the 6th place winner is not counted. Our group includes 6 teams and 2 points which we gained with Ireland will not be counted. Thus, points gained within 8 matches will be counted for each second place winner team. So, if team of Otar Gabelia loses with Armenia, they will have no chance to go through the playoff.
On September 7, the last round will be held in each group. Then everything will be found out but we cannot wait. So, let us discuss the chances of second place winners (in some groups it is already found out) and compare them... I repeat, here is considered that Georgia will beat Armenia on September 7. In other case, it is no use to discuss these chances.
Group I: 1. Romania - 9 matches, 24 points, 2. Russia - 9 matches, 21 points.
Match between Russia and Romania is left to be held. Russians must win 3:0 or with big difference to take the first place. In this case, both teams will go through the playoff. But if Russians do not win 3:0 (and maybe, they will not), they will take the second place. In case of taking the second place Russia will have the following situation: 7 matches, 15 points, balls 16:6.
It would be better for Georgians if Russia loses and in this case we will overtake them. If they play draw, Georgians must defeat Armenia 6:0.
Group II: Here is Georgia which will have the following situation in case of taking the second place: 7 matches, 13 points, balls 10:5. Let us think that they will take 16 points within 8 matches.
Group III: 1. Wales - 7 matches, 16 points, balls 15:5; 2. Italy - 7 matches, 13 points, balls 11:5; 3. Hungary - 7 matches, 12 points, balls 9:7.
In the last round Hungary hosts Bosnia and Italy - Wales. If Wales loses in Italy, Georgia will overtake second place winner in this group. If Italy wins, then, it would be better to win with big score. Why? Because Wales will take the second place, will have the same points as Georgia and we will win over them with balls. If Hungary takes the second place, they will not overtake us in any case.
It would be better for Georgians if Wales loses in Italy.
Group IV: 2. Spain - 7 matches, 16 points, balls 14:5.
Second place winner is already found out here. Spain will hold a match against Poland on September 7.
It would be better for Georgians if Spain loses with big difference in Poland. If they take point, they will overtake Georgia. In short, it is a dream...
Group V: 1. Czech - 7 matches, 19 points, balls 22:3; 2. Iceland - 7 matches, 16 points, balls 28:8.
There is a match between Czech and Iceland in the last round. Iceland must win with 3 balls to take the first place. Though it is more real, that will not win. It does not matter for us because second place winner of this group overtakes us with balls. Look - Czech has plus 19 and Iceland - plus 20. If Iceland loses, they will have the same points as Georgians and will overtake us with balls.
It would be better for Georgians if Sweden does not lose and guests do not lose in the matches between Israel and Chernogoria.
Group VII: 2. Slovakia - 7 matches, 14 points, balls 10:7.
Second place winner is already found out here - Slovakia. On September 7, Slovakia will play against Norway which is ourtsider of the group.
It would be better for Georgians if Slovakia loses. In this case we will overtake them.
Group VIII: 2. Belgium - 8 matches, 15 points, balls 8:5.
We overtake second place winner of this group.
Group IX: 2. England - 7 matches, 14 points, balls 12:7.
Second place winner is already found out here too. In the last round England will host Lithuania which is in the 4th place in the group.
It would be better for Georgians if England loses. In this case we overtake them.
Group X: 1. Belarus - 7 matches, 14 points, balls 11:4; 2. Austria - 7 matches, 14 points, balls 9:7; 3. Scotland - 7 matches, 14 points, balls 14:6.
In the last round Belarus will hold match against Azerbaijan. Scotland will host Austria. Second place winner must not collect 16 points.
It would be better for Georgians if Belarus - Azerbaijan or Scotland - Austria will finish draw, or if Belarus loses.

P.S. In any case, we should beat Armenia with big difference. Officially, no potential second place winner has guaranteed the playoff but Iceland and Spain are close to it. Also Russia, Slovakia and England have chances.
So, on September 7, we should be in the hope of sensations: support Lithuania against England, Norway against Slovakia, Poland against Spain, Azerbaijan against Belarus and so on...

Ilia Nanobashvili